(Answered) : Problem 1, estimate year four demand using first differences method and the seasonal index method we developed in class Probl

Problem 1, estimate year four demand using first differences method and the seasonal index method we developed in class

Problem 2, compute the forecast using exponential smoothing with trend: α = .2, β = .1, T1 = 10 S1 = 50

Create forecast through September 5th

Use MAD to measure forecast error

Use α = .4, β = .4 and repeat the forecast and MAD calculations

Which pair of α and β lead to the lower MAD?

Note this is much easier to do in a spreadsheet using proper constant value reference methods and partial absolute cell referencing

Problem 1
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
January 84 80 70
February 78 65 50
March 66 70 50
April 15 25 20
May 10 15 20
June 10 15 20
July 10 15 20
August 50 40 20
September 50 60 180
October 150 170 200
November 200 190 180
December 200 210 120
Total Annual
Problem 2
Date Sun Spot Count S T FIT
23-Aug 49 50 10
24-Aug 69
25-Aug 70
26-Aug 78
27-Aug 85
28-Aug 73
29-Aug 95
30-Aug 118
31-Aug 144
1-Sep 120
2-Sep 108
3-Sep 156
4-Sep 150

Expert

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