Fit a weighted 3-period moving average to the data, weighting the most recent period 60%, the next most recent period 30%, and the remaining period 10%.Calculate the forecasted number of moviegoers for Jan (yr 4), and the MAD for the model.
Month Year
1
2
3
January
99
147
140
February
123
122
132
March
144
113
135
April
127
124
156
May
128
156
157
June
188
199
223
July
146
162
169
August
155
156
154
September
134
134
153
October
129
144
154
November
130
132
161
December
143
155
165
Expert Answer
Let the Forecasted number of moviegoers for Jan (yr 4) = Jan4
Jan4 = WT1(Jan3) + WT2(Jan2) + WT3(Jan1)
= 0.6*140 + 0.3*147 + 0.1*99 (As 60%, 30% and 10% has been used as weights)
= 84 + 44.1 + 9.9
= 138
Absolute Deviation = 147-138
= 9
Mean Average Deviation (MAD) = 9/1 (Only One observation)
= 9