Fit a 4-period moving average to the data. Calculate the forecasted number of moviegoers for Jan (yr 4), and the MAD for the model.
Month Year
1
2
3
January
99
147
140
February
123
122
132
March
144
113
135
April
127
124
156
May
128
156
157
June
188
199
223
July
146
162
169
August
155
156
154
September
134
134
153
October
129
144
154
November
130
132
161
December
143
155
165
Expert Answer
https://d2vlcm61l7u1fs.cloudfront.net/media%2F9e9%2F9e982b12-a8f4-4794-b00c-37b96fbbca62%2FphpMV5lkG.png
C6 =AVERAGE(B2:B5) and dragged till end gives us the forecast for Jan = 158.25
D6 =ABS(B6-C6) and dragged till D37 gives us the absolute deviation of each month and
D38 =AVERAGE(D6:D37) gives us the required MAD of the forecast as 18.77