Assignment #8 The following estimates of activity times (in days) are available for a small project: Most Probable 5.0 9.0 7.5 9.0 7.0 6.0 Optimistic Pessimistic 10 10 1. Compute the expected activity completion times and the variance for each activity. 2. An analyst determine that the critical path consists of activities B-D-F. Compute the expected project completion time and the variance of the path.
Expert Answer
Answer 1:-
Activity Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic Expected completion time Expected compleetion time variance variance
A 4 5 6 (4+4*5+6)/6 5 ((6-4)/6)^2 0.11
B 8 9 10 (8+4*9+10)/6 9 ((10-8)/6)^2 0.11
C 7 7.5 11 (7+4*7.5+11)/6 8 (11-7)/6)^2 0.44
D 7 9 10 (7+4*9+10)/6 8.83 ((10-7)/6)^2 0.25
E 6 7 9 (6+4*7+9)/6 7.17 ((9-6)/6)^2 0.25
F 5 6 7 (5+4*6+7)/6 6 ((7-5)/6)^2 0.11
Formula for Expected completion time = (O+4M+P)/6
Variance = ((P-O)/6)^2
Answer 2:-
As critical path is B-D-F thus the expected completion time:-
tE(B-D-F) =((8+7+5) +4(9+9+6) +(10+10+7))/6 = 23.83
Variance = ((10-8)/6)^2+((10-7)/6)^2+((7-5)/6)^2)
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