Given an alpha=0.4, beta=0.2, use double exponential smoothing method to forecast sales for period 3. The trend for period 1 is 4 and the initial forecast for period 1 is 200.
Period Actual Demand
1 200
2
3
Expert Answer
Given an alpha=0.4, beta=0.2, use double exponential smoothing method to forecast sales for period 3. The trend for period 1 is 4 and the initial forecast for period 1 is 200.
Week
Actual Demand
Ft
Tt
FtTt
1
200
200
4
204
2
212
202.40
3.68
206.08
3
214
208.45
4.15
212.60
α=0.4
β=0.2
Ft=FtTt-1 + α(At-1 – FtTt-1)
Tt= Tt-1+ β((Ft- FtTt-1)
For period 2:- Ft=FtTt-1 + α(At-1 – FtTt-1)=204 +0.4(200 -204) =202.40
Tt= Tt-1+ β((Ft- FtTt-1) =4+0.2(202.40-204) =3.68
For period 3:- Ft=FtTt-1 + α(At-1 – FtTt-1)=206.08 +0.4(212 -206.08)
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