The table below shows the temperature (degrees C), at 11p.m., over the last ten days:
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Temperature 1.52.3 3.7 3.0 1.4 -1.3 -2.4 -3.7 -0.5 1.3
a) Calculate a three day moving average for eachday.
b) What would be your forecast for the temperature at 11p.m. on day 11?
c) Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constantof 0.8 to derive a forecast for the temperature at 11 p.m. on day11.
c) Which of the two forecasts for the temperature at 11p.m. on day 11 do you prefer and why?
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